Oh, what the hell. The Oscars have always been a mess and this year it is already junk at the nomination level. But it is tradition, so I’ll give it a shot. I’ll kinda sorta say who I think should win and what I think will win. And just like the Academy voters, I haven’t seen every nominee. Note: I’m skipping the doc, shorts, and Foreign Language categories. So here goes, following the order of presentation:
Supporting Actor:
NOMINEES: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri). Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Jason Sudeikis (Colossal) Really. Watch it. Forget the nominees—unless he’d count as lead actor.
WHO WILL WIN: Sam Rockwell
Costume Design:
NOMINEES: Beauty and the Beast, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Victoria and Abdul
WHO SHOULD WIN: Really? Just ignore the MCU, sure…
WHO WILL WIN: Phantom Thread
Makeup and Hair:
NOMINEES: Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul, Wonder
WHO SHOULD WIN: Again, really? So, no genre films? Idiots
WHO WILL WIN: Darkest Hour
Sound Editing/Mixing (Two categories, same nominees):
NOMINEES: Baby Driver, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
WHO SHOULD WIN: Only professional sound people should have an opinion
WHO WILL WIN: Dunkirk (at least once)
Supporting Actress:
NOMINEES: Mary J. Blige, (Mudbound), Allison Janney, (I, Tonya), Lesley Manville, (Phantom Thread), Laurie Metcalf, (Lady Bird), Octavia Spencer, (The Shape of Water)
WHO SHOULD WIN: flip a coin
WHO WILL WIN: Allison Janney
Animated Feature:
NOMINEES: The Boss Baby, The Breadwinner, Coco, Ferdinand, Loving Vincent
WHO SHOULD WIN: None!!!
WHO WILL WIN: Coco
Production Design:
NOMINEES: Beauty and the Beast, Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, The Shape of Water
WHO SHOULD WIN: No Thor? No Guardians of the Galaxy? Screw it!
WHO WILL WIN: The Shape of Water
Visual Effects:
NOMINEES:: Blade Runner 2049, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Kong: Skull Island, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes
WHO SHOULD WIN: War for the Planet of the Apes
WHO WILL WIN: War for the Planet of the Apes
Film Editing:
NOMINEES: Baby Driver, Dunkirk, I, Tonya, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
WHO SHOULD WIN: I’ll leave this to professional editors
WHO WILL WIN: Dunkirk
Cinematography:
NOMINEES: Blade Runner 2049, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Mudbound, The Shape of Water
WHO SHOULD WIN: The Shape of Water
WHO WILL WIN: Blade Runner 2049
Original Score:
NOMINEES: Dunkirk {Hans Zimmer}, Phantom Thread {Jonny Greenwood}, The Shape of Water {Alexandre Desplat}, Star Wars: The Last Jedi {John Williams}, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri {Carter Burwell}
WHO SHOULD WIN: Star Wars: The Last Jedi {John Williams}
WHO WILL WIN: The Shape of Water {Alexandre Desplat}
Original Song:
NOMINEES: “Mighty River” from Mudbound, “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name, “Remember Me” from Coco, “Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall, “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman
WHO SHOULD WIN: none
WHO WILL WIN: “Remember Me” from Coco
Adapted Screenplay:
NOMINEES: Call Me by Your Name, The Disaster Artist, Logan, Molly’s Game, Mudbound
WHO SHOULD WIN: The Girl With All the Gifts (screw the nominations)
WHO WILL WIN: Call Me by Your Name
Original Screenplay:
NOMINEES: The Big Sick, Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
WHO SHOULD WIN: Thor: Ragnarok (if that counts as “original”)
WHO WILL WIN: Get Out
Director:
NOMINEES: Christopher Nolan, Jordan Peele, Greta Gerwig, Paul Thomas Anderson, Guillermo del Toro
WHO SHOULD WIN: Guillermo del Toro
WHO WILL WIN: Guillermo del Toro
Actor:
NOMINEES: Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name), Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread), Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Chris Hemsworth (comedy is hard)
WHO WILL WIN: Gary Oldman
Actress:
NOMINEES: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird), Meryl Steep (The Post)
WHO SHOULD WIN: Sennia Nanua (The Girl With All the Gifts). Either she wins in a write-in or the Academy Awards needs to be dumped now. She is clearly the best.
WHO WILL WIN: Frances McDormand
Best Picture:
NOMINEES: Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour, Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread, The Post, The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
WHO SHOULD WIN: The Shape of Water, of the nominees
WHO WILL WIN: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri