When I started writing this I was going to name it “Handicapping the Hugos,” but then I saw that some unknown writer, who also swiped my idea for a book series focusing on a coming season (mine was Spring is Coming. Think that would sell?) had done his own handicapping, and with that title. So, a re-title, a bit of a re-write to go in his order if you want to compare, and away we go. (If you don’t like the whys, skip down 5 paragraphs)
The Hugos are usually hard to call, and this year the unknowns are too high. Those unknowns are the large number of new voters. There’s over 2000 more votes than last year. The winners will be determined by who those 2000+ are. One possibility is that they are “unaligned,” coming into the Hugos due to the added publicity, but not having any political views. I find that incredibly unlikely. I’ll give it a 1%. I think these new voters fall into one of three categories.
Puppy Supporters – And extreme ones. No one jumped into this because they have a mild interest in upsetting the apple cart. No, if they’re pups, they’re frothy, and will be voting for the party. Their only problem is since most of the candidates are from the party, sometimes their voting strength will be defuse. But in a few categories, a small number of people could rule. Chances are they haven’t read many of the works.
Anti-Pups – That’s me. The goal is to stop the pups from destroying the Hugos in the long term, knowing that this year is already a lost cause. The racism and sexism, not to mention the reactionary philosophy of the pups are what brought in these voters. They’ll use “No Award” often, and tend to vote against any pup. There will be some cross-overs (in dramatic presentation categories, and where the nominees made it clear they want nothing to do with the slate that got them there), but for the most part, slate candidates will get nothing from these folks.
Fandom Defenders – These are the folks who want to pretend that if we just act as we always have (except to vote this year) things will be OK and people will be happy. These people will be operating with the philosophy that each work should be considered on merit alone, so will cross over as they see fit. However, they will see the pups as attacking fandom, so they will be suspicious of pups, and no matter their general philosophy, they won’t vote for Vox Day or John C. Wright. If they are more informed, you can add Tom Kratman to that list. Chances are they’ve haven’t read all the works.
At this point it is all guess. Once the first award is given and it is clear who those 2000 are, then it will be easy to figure who will win in many categories, but right now, it’s a roll of the dice. But I think the dice are a bit loaded. If I had to bet, I’d bet a majority of those new people are Fandom Defenders. I’ll give that 60/40. Next most likely are Puppy Supporters. Us Anti-Pups will be a small minority, but here and there, it will make a difference. So, assuming that:
The Campbell Award (Not a Hugo)
There’s five “new writers” up for the award. Four are pups, with no particular standing in the Pup world and none in the non-pup world. Wesley Chu, the one non-pup, in his second year of eligibility, and the only one with any kind of name, will win.
Best Fan Artist
Strangely, the pups nominated no one for this category. It is pup-mess-free. That said, I knew nothing about any of these people before I received my packet, and know little more now. So I’ll go mindlessly with the tradition of giving the Hugo to the same artist repeatedly and agree with GRRM on Brad W. Foster.
Best Fan Writer
Four pups and Laura J Mixon. The pups have done nothing to distinguish themselves in or out of the pup world. Whatever pup votes they get will be split. Non-Pups will go to Mixon. She’s there because of her piece that documented the online genre hate-monger Benjanun Sriduangkaew. There is overwhelming support for this work in the non-pup world. Benjanun (who went by “Requires Hate” for dickish reasons) has a few apologistsâmainly people who think that screaming and throwing tantrums are the best way to change the worldâbut they will have little influence. Mixon wins.
Best Fancast
Ummmm. No idea. Never heard them. Will guess a non-pup, so one of Galactic Suburbia Podcast or Tea and Jeopardy. I’m betting most of the voters don’t know them either, so maybe the alphabet will decide.
Best Fanzine
Another category hold-over from days gone by. Really, some categories need to be pruned. But OK. This has one non-pup and 3ish pup nominees. The missing 5th nominee was Black Gate, and it would have won, but they turned down the nomination due to bad puppy-smell, but too late to be removed from the ballot. As such, Black Gate could still win. The one non-pup choice is Journey Planet, which is not terribly well known. Of the pups’ choices, The Revenge of Hump Day is a mildly racist joke. It could never make the ballot legitimately, and even the pups won’t support it. Elitist Book Reviews is a popular pup site, but I cannot see it getting a lot of votes even from Pups. Tangent SF Online is the pup candidate and has a real shot. My dear wife was editor of Tangent for a time, before it went back to Truesdale and he turned it into a place for wild right-wing rants. This one is tough to call, but I’ll give it to Journey Planet because I do not want to think about it going to Tangent.
Best Semiprozine
For God’s sake, consolidate some categories! Ok, we’ve got two pups (Abyss & Apex, Andromeda Spaceways In-Flight Magazine) and three non-pups (Beneath Ceaseless Skies, Lightspeed Magazine, Strange Horizons). There are some good choiceâeven some good pup choices. The best of the pup noms is Andromeda, but its editors have stated they are not pups and want nothing to do with the pups. Which means they are getting no puppy votes, and since there are other good choices, no-non-puppy votes. In this one I can see the Fandom Defender votes being split, with Lightspeed coming out ahead. It is a good magazine and deserving. But will its split vote be enough to hold off a concentrated puppy vote for Abyss & Apex? I’d say no, except I’ve heard not a peep from the pup camps about Abyss, so I’ll go with Lightspeed.
Best Pro Artist
I don’t know these folks, and suspect many others don’t either. There is one non-pup, and four pups to split the vote. The one non-pup, Julie Dillon, takes it.
Editor – Long Form
It’s all pups, but I don’t see No Award getting through. I wish it would, but it won’t This category also has Vox Day as a nominee. He is a horrible editor (read the Castalia House authors in the pack and you’ll see just how unskilled he is). The only way he’d win is if Pups dominated everything, in which case all my predictions are wrong. Two of the pups choices don’t count. They will focus on Toni Weisskoph, senior editor at Baen. Non-pups will focus on Sheila Gilbert, editor at DAW. This could be close, but most voters will having nothing to go by except vague idea of who’s on what side. It’s hard to figure what makes an editor good, and only real insiders will be able to make an educated decision. So, with a strong chance it could be Weisskoph, I’m predicting Gilbert.
Editor – Short Form
One withdrawal too late to be replaced so only four choicesâall pups. Vox Day again. But this one is a runaway. Mike Resnick. He could make tables from the Hugos he’s already won. He’s known as a staunch conservative who distanced himself from Vox Day without pissing off anyone else. He’ll win.
Dramatic Presentation, Short Form
This category pisses me off every year. I run a shorts film festival. There are hundreds of excellent short genre films. But they never get nominated. Just TV episodes. Arg! Kill this damn category. Sorry. Back to it. We’ve got three pups (The Flash: Pilot, Game of Thrones: The Mountain and the Viper, Grimm: Once We Were Gods) and two non-pups (Doctor Who: Listen, Orphan Black: By Means Which Have Never Yet Been Tried). This is a hard one to call as the pup stink doesn’t stick to these nominees (since most of the makers of these barely know what a Hugo is, much less a Sad Puppy). Grimm is out. Orphan Black could get a hipster vote, but it won’t be enough. Doctor Who could have taken this easy with a previous Doctor, but enthusiasm has been low. The choice of episode for Game of Thrones doesn’t help it–a particularly violent and gory one. So, will voters repeat themselves with Doctor Who without much enthusiasm, or repeat themselves with Game of Thrones without much enthusiasm? Smart money is on Doctor Who. But I’m going to think the new folks are pure geeks, and it has been a year of squeeing about The Flash, so I’m giving my nod there (as winner, not as what I want to win), with a good chance of The Doctor.
Dramatic Presentation, Short Form
Three pup choices (Guardians of the Galaxy, Interstellar, The Lego Movie) and two non-pup (Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Edge of Tomorrow) and again, no one making these knew or cared about the puppies. They could buy the Hugos ten times over out of petty cash.
In the past Interstellar would have walked away with it, as the smart movie. It isn’t smart, it’s a mess, but it fooled enough people into thinking that love is the fifth element (hmmmâwonder if there might be a better film that says that?) and thus, it is so clever, that it would take the prize. But not this year. And not with 2000+ new folks. Also forget Edge of Tomorrow. Captain America should win. It’s the best film, it is the geek film of the year, and it is non-puppy. But Hugo voters do like space ships, so I’ll put it neck and neck with Guardians of the Galaxy. Lego Movie has an advantage of not splitting the Marvel vote. This will be very close, and depends on how geeky our new 2000 are, but I will give the nod, just barely, to Guardians of the Galaxy.
Best Graphic Story
Strangely forgotten by pups, they put up only one joke nomineeâZombie Nation, which they don’t even support. Forget it. The non-pup choices are Ms. Marvel, Rat Queens, Saga Volume 3, and Sex Criminals. Sex Criminals is my pick, but due to subject matter, it has only a slightly better chance than Zombie Nation. Rat Queens is well liked, but will be thought too light. Saga would take it if it was all Worldcon veterans voting, but for those who haven’t kept up with it, starting with volume 3 will be confusing. Add to that that Ms. Marvel is far better known as the only really main stream work on the list, and this one goes to Ms. Marvel.
Best Related Work
Oh God! Five pup works and they are all, very, very pup. Here the pups have lots to support, but almost nothing for anyone else. That split of the pup vote won’t do the pups any good. Of the works, no one outside of pupdom will go for John C. Wrights attempt to offend people. The same is true of Michael Z. Williamson’s collection of smarmy tweets. Lou Antonelli’s work isn’t clearly a related work, or a short story collection, and serious pups will turn a different way. Tedd Roberts Why Science is Never Settled is 50-year-old philosophy of science, and Ken Burnside’s instructions on making hard sci-fi is just not going to bring in much love (plus, it was published by Vox Day). With a split pup vote, and nothing for anyone else, this one, finally, goes to No Award.
Short Story
Four puppy stories, and not a single one I’d want to read again. John C. Wright’s sermon will only get hardcore pup votes and that highly sought after priest vote. Lou Antonelli’s On a Spiritual Plain is so poorly written. A Single Samurai isn’t enough of a story. Pups will mainly go for Turncoat, an old-school and highly predictable military space ship story, but their won’t be enough of them. Kary English isn’t thought of as a pup, and her story, Totaled, has been getting a lot of praise (I don’t see it as Hugo quality, but enough others do). No Award should win, but I see this going to English.
Novelette
Four puppy nominees, two of them not actual novelettesâbut segments of unfinished novelsâand one non-pup. This category is so lacking and I don’t see any story the pups would all get behind. That leaves the non-pup The Day the World Turned Upside Down. It is just a long metaphor but it is going to be the choice of anyone voting for an award. It will be close between it and no award, but I think the story will win.
Novella
This is the proving ground. If the pups win here, then the Hugos are theirs, at least for a few years. There are five puppy nominees: three by John C. Wright, one by Tom Kratman (who makes Wright seem calm and leftest), and Flow, an uneventful piece of an unfinished novel. Four of these were published by Vox Day. This is where Anti-pups and Fandom-defenders meet. No Award.
Novel
Two pups (Kevin J. Anderson’s The Dark Between the Stars, Jim Butcher’s Skin Game) and three non-pups (Ann Leckie ‘s Ancillary Sword, Katherine Addison’s The Goblin Emperor, Cixin Liu & Ken Liu’s The Three-Body Problem). Another difficult field since the Fandom Defenders will not hold the pups against Anderson and Butcher, both of whom are very popular and have stayed out of the fray. However, both have nominated novels that are in the middle of ongoing sagas–so far stuck in the middle that it will eliminated Anderson. Butcher has a chance to win, but I don’t think he will. The Goblin Emperor is a cutesy taleâtoo young to win. Ancillary Sword is a harder question. Leckie won last year with Ancillary Justice, but that was a better novel, more fun and sweeping. She also didn’t win the Nebula with the same situation, so I’m betting no. She’ll be close to Butcher. Which leaves The Three-Body Problem. I think it will win, but then I was sure it would win the Nebula and it didn’t, so take that as you will.
And that’s way more than I expected to spend on this. My predictionsâŚI hope I am wrong. It could go far worse, but I really hope it goes far better, and we see a few more No Awards. We’ll know in a few days.